The Convergence Window: Model Sheet
Five models, one economy, and a gap of about 1,055 times between what the economists measure and what the worker lives on. Every input is on the table, so you can check the arithmetic yourself.
Revision note: September 2026
Two inputs were corrected. Federal debt-to-GDP moves from 1.75 to 1.24 (gross federal debt, end of 2024). Household debt-to-income moves from 2.5 to 0.90 (household debt to disposable income). The original run also mislabeled its worker score of 0.000057 as “0.0057%” of the economists’ capacity; measured against S_base, it was about 0.058%. Every score below is recomputed from the corrected inputs, with every other variable and multiplier left as the author set them. The headline gap between Base and Worker moves from about 1,730× (stated as 1,723× in the original) to about 1,055×.
VARIABLE DEFINITIONS
Core Variables (All Models)
| Symbol | Name | Description | Range | 2024 Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | Wages | Individual earnings, roughly $66,000 a year | >0 | $66,000 | Author’s basket value (for reference, Census median household income was $85,210 in 2024) |
| C | Cost | Essential cost basket (annual) | >0 | $64,000 | Author’s basket value |
| D | Debt Ratio | Federal debt-to-GDP (gross, end of 2024) | 0–2+ | 1.24 | Treasury / BEA |
| TFR | Fertility Rate | Total fertility rate | 0–7 | 1.60 | Author’s model parameter |
| B | Birth Momentum | TFR ÷ 2.1 (normalized) | 0–~3 | 0.762 | Derived (1.6 ÷ 2.1) |
| M_trust | Trust Multiplier | Institutional trust | 0–1 | 0.19 | Author’s model parameter |
| M_EROEI | Energy Multiplier | EROEI ÷ 30.0 | 0–1 | 0.2267 | Author’s model parameter |
| M_complex | Complexity Multiplier | 1 − friction | 0–1 | 0.24 | Author’s model parameter |
Systemic Variables (S_sys, S_worker)
| Symbol | Name | Description | Range | 2024 Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | Hoarding Coefficient | Top 1% wealth concentration | ≥1.0 | 2.0 | Author’s model parameter |
| L | Leverage | Corporate/private debt-to-GDP | ≥0 | 0.82 | Author’s model parameter |
| I | Sovereignty Shield | Domestic debt share | 0–1 | 0.42 | Author’s model parameter |
| P | Predation | Elite extraction rate | 0–1 | 0.28 | Author’s model parameter |
HDTI Variables (S_ext_new, S_worker)
| Symbol | Name | Description | Range | 2024 Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDTI | Household Debt-to-Income | Household debt to disposable income | ≥0 | 0.90 | Fed Z.1 / BEA |
| α | HDTI Alpha | Correction strength | 0–1 | 0.6 | Author’s model parameter |
| H_mult | Housing Stress Multiplier | Housing stress | 0.1–1.0 | 0.7 | Author’s model parameter |
| MEI_mult | Mortgage Expansion Index | Mortgage market health | 0.1–1.0 | 0.68 | Author’s model parameter |
Worker Variables (S_worker Only)
| Symbol | Name | Description | Range | 2024 Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D_med | Medical Drag | Share of income lost to healthcare | 0–1 | 0.18 | Author’s model parameter |
| F_housing | Housing Factor | Housing affordability multiplier | ≥1.0 | 1.8 | Author’s model parameter |
MODEL HIERARCHY
S_base (Raw Capacity)
↓ + trust / energy / complexity
S_ext (Extended Model)
↓ + household debt + housing
S_ext_new (HDTI Corrected)
↓ + medical + housing burden
S_worker (Kitchen Table Reality)
S_sys runs parallel (Extraction / Sovereignty)
MODEL COMPARISON (2024)
| Model | Philosophy | Score | Status | Gap from Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S_base | Economist’s optimistic view | 0.2986 | System Failure | 1.0× |
| S_ext | Friction: trust / energy / complexity | 0.003086 | System Failure | 97× |
| S_sys | Extraction and sovereignty | 0.001177 | System Failure | 254× |
| S_ext_new | Household debt and housing | 0.001205 | System Failure | 248× |
| S_worker | Lived worker reality | 0.000283 | System Failure | 1,055× |
The 1,055× gap between Base and Worker is the invisible depression.
MODEL FORMULAS
1. S_base: The Economist’s View
FormulaS_base = (W/C) × (1 − D/2) × (TFR/2.1)
2024 CalculationW/C = 66,000 / 64,000 = 1.03125
Debt Factor = 1 − (1.24 / 2) = 0.38
Birth Momentum = 1.6 / 2.1 = 0.761905
S_base = 1.03125 × 0.38 × 0.761905 = 0.298571 (≈ 0.2986)
Status: System Failure
2. S_ext: The Sociologist’s View (Friction)
FormulaS_ext = S_base × M_trust × M_EROEI × M_complex
Multipliers (2024)M_trust = 0.19
M_EROEI = 0.2267
M_complex = 0.24
2024 CalculationS_ext = 0.298571 × 0.19 × 0.2267 × 0.24
S_ext = 0.003086
Status: System Failure
3. S_sys: The Architect’s View (Extraction)
FormulaS_sys = (W/(C×H)) × Debt_sys × B × (1−P) × multipliers
Key Intermediate Values (2024)Systemic Dignity = 66,000 / (64,000 × 2) = 0.515625
Total Debt = D + L = 1.24 + 0.82 = 2.06
Foreign Exposure = 1 − I = 1 − 0.42 = 0.58
Debt_sys = 1 − [(2.06 × 0.58) / 2] = 0.4026
Predation = 1 − 0.28 = 0.72
2024 Calculation
S_sys = 0.515625 × 0.4026 × 0.761905 × 0.72 × 0.19 × 0.2267 × 0.24
S_sys = 0.001177
Status: System Failure
4. S_ext_new: HDTI-Corrected Model
FormulaS_ext_new = S_ext × HD_mult × H_mult × MEI_mult
HDTI CorrectionHDTI_norm = 0.90 / 3.0 = 0.30
HD_mult = 1 − (0.6 × 0.30) = 0.82
2024 CalculationS_ext_new = 0.003086 × 0.82 × 0.7 × 0.68
S_ext_new = 0.001205
Status: System Failure
5. S_worker: The 99% Reality
Formula
S_worker = S_ext_new × (1 − D_med) × (W/(C × F_housing × H))
Worker-Specific (2024)Medical Factor = 1 − 0.18 = 0.82
Worker Dignity = 66,000 / (64,000 × 1.8 × 2.0)
Worker Dignity = 0.286458
2024 CalculationS_worker = 0.001205 × 0.82 × 0.286458
S_worker = 0.000283
Status: System Failure
Gap from Base
S_base / S_ext = 0.298571 / 0.003086 ≈ 97×
S_base / S_sys = 0.298571 / 0.001177 ≈ 254×
S_base / S_ext_new = 0.298571 / 0.001205 ≈ 248×
S_base / S_worker = 0.298571 / 0.000283 ≈ 1,055×
FINAL INSIGHT
After all extractions, burdens, debts, frictions, energy losses, and demographic collapse are accounted for…
The worker experiences only 0.000283 stability: about one-tenth of one percent of the capacity economists claim (1/1,055).
That 1,055× model gap is the collapse people feel.